The NFL is a lot harder to pick than college. I only managed to pick 7 games correctly. And of course, one has to guard against the temptation to overreact. You will likely, however, see some overreaction in this week’s picks. I tried. Really.

Houston at Cincinnati (Thur) – These were the two worst-looking teams in week 1. I will reject the urge to overreact and assume the striped offense is actually decent, despite the evidence. Bengals 23, Texans 13

New England at New Orleans – If the Pats D is really that bad, this could be a shootout. Patriots 30, Saints 27

Chicago at Tampa Bay – If there is any overreaction out there, it is any positive outlook on the Bears in view of their effort against Atlanta. Bucs 23, Bears 7

Cleveland at Baltimore – Kiser is going to have to grow up quite fast. Ravens 20, Browns 10

Arizona at Indianapolis – The Cards are down their stud RB, Indy is down just about everything. This is just the matchup Arians needs to convince himself his awesomeness is still in place. Bruce’s Ego 34, Colts 13

Philadelphia at Kansas City – There is an awful lot to like about the Chiefs offense. I think we’re all still trying to figure Philly out. I think they would need to out-score them, and I don’t think they’re up to it. Chiefs 37, Eagles 23

Minnesota at Pittsburgh – This is a matchup just teeming with screams for over-reactions. I will not take the bait. The Steelers offense is not this bad and the Vikings offense is not this good. Steelers 27, Vikings 20

Tennessee at Jacksonville – OK, so EVERYBODY has Jax alone in first place after week 1, right? You know, after all the defensive free agents they have added the past 2 years, a performance like that should be a regular one. I don’t think they will be able to overcome the shortcomings of Fake Bortles though. Titans 20, Jags 10

Miami at LA Chargers – After the big storm, the highly-thought-of Fins get to be the first road opponent in the soccer stadium. One pundit picked the Bolts for the Super Bowl. That person needs immediate medical attention. Dolphins 33, Clippers – er, uh, I mean Chargers 21

NY Jets at Oakland – despite the legion of silver & black backers, this is the Who Cares Game of the Week. Raiders 41, Jets 13

Washington at LA Rams – Again, the temptation is to overreact to the Rams performance. But that was a JV team they were playing. Back to Earth in an upset special. Redskins 27, Rams 23

Dallas at Denver – Woo hoo, 2 teams that I despise with a passion. With Zeke’s suspension likely not to be enforced until 2018, there’s little reason to believe Dallas won’t be very good again. Cowboys 23, Donkeys 20

San Francisco at Seattle – I loved the explanation the announcers gave about this Frisco team last week. This is, for the most part, an expansion team. There are stud draft picks, street free agents, and a bunch of veteran castoffs. This is going to take a while. Be patient. Seahawks 31, 49ers 13

Green Bay at Atlanta – If you can get past the Erin Rodgers slobbering, you can see that the offense does look loaded. Most are bullish on the Falcons D as well. This will be a “something’s gotta give” battle that I may sacrifice needed sleep to watch. Packers 27, Falcons 24

Detroit at NY Giants (Mon) – Ugh. This is a matchup I will NOT sacrifice needed sleep to watch. If I’m still up at 10:30, it’s because I can’t sleep from thinking about the Indians possibly winning their 26th game in a row in Anaheim on Tuesday. Lions 31, Giants 17

Buffalo at Carolina – There are all kinds of nicknames out there for all the former Panthers now employed by the Bills. My choice is “Buffalo, North Carolina.” Some say the Bills are tanking as they pile up draft picks. I say they still have playmakers on both sides, and beating them is no given. Now that Cam has worked some of the rust off, we should be in good shape. But it will not be easy. PANTHERS 19, Bills 10

Last week’s record: 7-8